The Chilean international had scored six league goals this season before being sidelined after picking up a hamstring injury against Norwich City on November 29.
He was expected to return to the side before Christmas but suffered a setback that delayed his recovery, and Wenger was unwilling to risk him in Wednesday's 3-3 league draw with Liverpool.
"Alexis I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday," Wenger told reporters on Friday.
"He is fit, he has worked very hard and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury."
Wenger also called on his players to prove their title credentials on Sunday by putting an end to their woeful run at Stoke City, having won just one of their last seven league meetings at the Britannia Stadium.
"We have to show that we have made a big step forward and can beat them," the Frenchman said.
Arsenal, who are on top of the league, above Leicester City on goal difference, after 21 games, will look to get back to winning ways against the Potters, having dropped two points at Liverpool on Wednesday.
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